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JIANMIN VILLAGE, China =97 Last year, Chinese officials celebrated = the=20 completion of the Three Gorges Dam by releasing a list of 10 world = records. As=20 in: The Three Gorges is the world=92s biggest dam, biggest power plant = and biggest=20 consumer of dirt, stone, concrete and steel. Ever. Even the project=92s = official=20 tally of 1.13 million displaced people made the list as record No. = 10.
Today, the Communist Party is hoping the dam does not become = China=92s biggest=20 folly. In recent weeks, Chinese officials have admitted that the dam was = spawning environmental problems like water pollution and landslides that = could=20 become severe. Equally startling, officials want to begin a new = relocation=20 program that would be bigger than the first.
The rising controversy makes it easy to overlook what could have been = listed=20 as world record No. 11: The Three Gorges Dam is the world=92s biggest = man-made=20 producer of electricity from renewable energy. Hydropower, in fact, is = the=20 centerpiece of one of China=92s most praised green initiatives, a plan = to rapidly=20 expand renewable energy by 2020.
The Three Gorges Dam, then, lies at the uncomfortable center of = China=92s=20 energy conundrum: The nation=92s roaring economy is addicted to dirty, = coal-fired=20 power plants that pollute the air and belch greenhouse gas emissions = that=20 contribute to global=20 warming. Dams are much cleaner producers of electricity, but they = have=20 displaced millions of people in China and carved a stark environmental = legacy on=20 the landscape.
=93It=92s really kind of a no-win situation,=94 said Jonathan Sinton, = China program=20 manager at the International Energy Agency. =93There are no ideal = choices.=94
For now, China=92s choice is to keep building big dams, even as the = social and=20 environmental impacts of the projects are increasingly questioned. The = Three=20 Gorges Dam is projected as an anchor in a string of hydropower = =93mega-bases=94=20 planned for the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River. By 2020, = China=20 wants to nearly triple its hydropower capacity, to 300 gigawatts.
The Communist Party leaders who broke ground on the Three Gorges = project in=20 1994 had promised that China could build the world=92s biggest dam, = manage the=20 world=92s biggest human resettlement and also protect the environment. = Critics=20 warned of potential dangers, but saw those objections pushed aside. Now, = critics=20 say, the problems at the Three Gorges underscore the risks of the new = phase of=20 dam building, which could displace more than 300,000 people.
=93In western China, the one-sided pursuit of economic benefits from = hydropower=20 has come at the expense of relocated people, the environment and the = land and=20 its cultural heritage,=94 Fan Xiao, a Sichuan Province geologist and a = critic of=20 the Three Gorges project, said via e-mail. =93Hydropower development is = disorderly=20 and uncontrolled, and it has reached a crazy scale.=94
Advocates say hydropower is one of China=92s richest and least tapped = energy=20 resources. Even though much of the country is plagued with drought and = water=20 shortages, China also boasts a knot of important rivers that flow out of = the=20 Tibetan high plateau. Currently, China uses only about one-fourth of its = hydropower potential.
A Hunger for Energy
At the same time, China=92s insatiable appetite for energy is mostly = being met=20 with a building spree of coal-fired power plants. Coal accounts for 67 = percent=20 of China=92s energy supply. Just last year, China added 102 gigawatts of = generating capacity, as much as the entire capacity of France.
To ease its addiction to coal, China wants 15 percent of the = country=92s energy=20 consumption to come from renewable sources by 2020, compared with 7.5 = percent=20 today. To do that, it is developing solar, wind and biomass projects so = rapidly=20 that some experts say it could soon become a world leader in renewable = energy.=20 Even so, forecasts show these sources will amount to less than 4 percent = of the=20 energy supply by 2020.
Nuclear power is another popular alternative, and officials plan to = double=20 its capacity by 2020. Yet even such a huge expansion will only amount to = 4=20 percent of the energy supply.
Hydropower, by contrast, already accounts for 6 percent of the power = supply=20 and has major growth potential. Chen Deming, one of the government=92s = top=20 economic planners, said hydropower was a critical noncarbon energy = source and=20 described the negative impacts of dams as =93controllable.=94 He said = officials=20 would emphasize environmental protection and resettlement issues on = future=20 projects.
=93We believe that large-scale hydropower plants contribute a lot to = reduce=20 energy consumption, air and environmental pollution,=94 Mr. Chen said at = a=20 September news conference. China, he added, planned to develop = hydropower on =93a=20 considerable scale.=94
Internationally, a debate has raged for years about large dams (those = higher=20 than 50 feet) because of their legacy of disruption. Many = environmentalists=20 contend that electricity generated by large dams should not be = considered=20 renewable because of the social and environmental damage that follow = many=20 projects. The United States has many large dams, but in recent years has = started=20 decommissioning some of them, particularly in the West, because of = environmental=20 concerns.
Tension about large dams is also rising in China. Environmentalists = are=20 pushing for tighter regulation and more public input before projects are = approved. Resettlement remains a volatile issue. Two years ago, more = than=20 100,000 people protested the Pubugou Dam project in Sichuan Province, = until the=20 riot police crushed the demonstration.
President Hu=20 Jintao and Prime Minister Wen=20 Jiabao appear less enamored of the big projects than their = predecessors.=20 Neither man attended last year=92s ceremony for the completion of the = Three Gorges=20 Dam. Mr. Wen has demanded environmental reviews for different proposed = sites.=20 Yet with the momentum of the surging economy, most projects continue = moving=20 forward.
The renewed debate about the Three Gorges project offers a view of = the=20 competing pressures on China. Equal parts vanity project and = technological=20 marvel, the Three Gorges was initially conceived for flood control, not = for any=20 efforts to promote clean energy.
Today, dams are big business in China, and profit-seeking is another = major=20 reason behind the hydropower push.
Few if any hydropower projects have been more controversial than the = Three=20 Gorges. Entire cities were inundated along with ancient temples and = other=20 landmarks. Today, many of the people resettled by the project are still=20 struggling to survive. For years, despite the problems, Chinese = officials rarely=20 criticized the project or expressed concern.
And then, unexpectedly, the silence broke.
=91Hidden Dangers=92
At a forum on Sept. 25 in the city of Wuhan, a group of officials and = experts=20 gathered for a discussion about the Three Gorges Dam that would ripple = across=20 China and beyond. A keynote speaker at the forum was Wang Xiaofeng, a = point=20 person on the project for China=92s State Council, the highest executive = body in=20 the government.
Mr. Wang began by reciting different accomplishments and reminding = his=20 audience that China had overcome widespread skepticism to prove it could = build=20 the project. But with the construction of the hydropower station = entering its=20 final phase, =93environmental security=94 represented the new challenge, = he said.=20 According to a transcript of his speech, Mr. Wang warned that =93hidden = dangers,=94=20 if left untended, could breed disaster. He said that increased pressures = on the=20 shoreline =93may become causes for water pollution, landslides and other = geological disasters.=94
Water quality in the main reservoir remained stable, but Mr. Wang = said=20 pollution was worsening in tributaries because of high levels of = nitrates and=20 phosphates that had already endangered drinking water in some areas. He = said an=20 algal bloom from too many nutrients earlier this year on a tributary had = contaminated drinking water for 50,000 people in Fengdu County.
Mr. Wang framed his speech like a call to action. He said officials = needed to=20 address environmental problems =93at the root.=94 He warned that = government agencies=20 were not prepared for emergencies and had no plan for natural disasters = like an=20 earthquake. He declared that China would now =93work hard to build a = first-class=20 hydropower project and to create a first-class environment.=94
=93The environmental work of the Three Gorges Dam will be a long and = hard=20 road,=94 he cautioned.
Critics Are Astonished
The next day, Xinhua, the government=92s news agency, carried a few = comments=20 from Mr. Wang and other regional officials in an article that ran = beneath a=20 blaring headline on the agency=92s English-language Web site: =93China = Warns of=20 Environmental =91Catastrophe=92 From Three Gorges Dam.=94
Longtime critics of the project felt vindicated, if astonished, at = the=20 official concession. =93In more than 20 years that have passed, the dam = authority=20 and official Chinese media have been reluctant to utter one word about = problems=20 with the big dam project,=94 Dai Qing, a prominent dam critic, wrote on = the Web=20 site of Probe International, an environmental group.
=93Instead, they have tried to cover up, make false reports and = deceive=20 ordinary Chinese people,=94 she wrote.
In Beijing, some observers wondered if Mr. Hu and Mr. Wen had allowed = the=20 public airing in order to distance themselves from a project built by = earlier=20 leaders. Others speculated that officials in the reservoir region were=20 publicizing the problems because the last construction phase ends in = 2009. New=20 problems could mean new streams of government financing.
Most of all, though, the mere suggestion of a =93catastrophe=94 = raised an=20 alarming question: What constitutes a catastrophe at the world=92s = largest=20 dam?
Mr. Fan, the geologist and critic, said the Three Gorges region had a = history=20 of geological fragility. He said the worst situation would be a major = earthquake=20 induced by pressure from the rising water =97 a possibility that = officials have=20 long discounted. Heavy silt accumulation, if seemingly less alarming, = could also=20 pose severe problems upstream as it gradually builds up the floor of the = reservoir.
Silt accumulation has steadily reduced the capacity of other Chinese = dams to=20 store water, which has also reduced electrical generation. Planners of = the Three=20 Gorges Dam estimated that sedimentation could become a problem upstream = in the=20 city of Chongqing within 20 years.
But Mr. Fan and other scientists say sedimentation is already = happening at a=20 rate that could create flooding and shipping problems in Chongqing much = sooner=20 than expected.
Proponents of the dam have quickly defended the project on the = Internet and=20 in Chinese publications. Xinhua, the official news agency that helped = fuel the=20 debate, has since taken a more measured tone. Zhang Boting, an advocate = for the=20 hydropower industry, said environmental issues were initially = exaggerated in the=20 news media. He said national statistics showed that overall water = quality was=20 improving and contended that his own research found that the number of=20 landslides had declined since dam construction began.
=93There is no hard evidence to show there is dramatic change,=94 = said Mr. Zhang,=20 who is vice secretary general of the China Hydropower Engineering = Society, an=20 industry trade group. =93We have problems, but we predicted those = problems a long=20 time ago. We are tackling those problems.=94
Mr. Zhang said the situation was really about local bureaucracies = facing the=20 end of the project and looking for more financing. =93Electricity is = such a=20 lucrative industry,=94 Mr. Zhang said. =93The Three Gorges is like a = piece of fat.=20 Everybody wants to have a bite.=94
Big Dams and Big Money
China once was so poor it struggled to build big projects. Today, = dams are a=20 huge business in China, and the giant utilities that build them are = soaked with=20 government and private investment money. When the corporation building = the Three=20 Gorges project publicly listed a subsidiary in 2003, share prices surged = by 45=20 percent as the company raised nearly $1.2 billion in a single day.
In 2002, the country began to dismantle its inefficient electric = power=20 monopoly. Five power giants were created and encouraged to exploit = energy=20 resources at a time when China was encountering sporadic regional = blackouts.=20 Competitive pressures drove each utility to pursue as many energy = projects as=20 possible to secure market share.
Today, the Three Gorges Dam is the de facto anchor of a planned = system of 12=20 hydropower mega-bases on the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze. = Over all,=20 officials have said more than 100 hydropower stations could be built on = the=20 upper Yangtze basin within two decades. The government-owned corporation = that=20 built the Three Gorges Dam has already started construction on 3 of the = 12 large=20 projects.
One of those sites, Xiluodu, will be the country=92s second-largest = hydropower=20 station when it is completed in 2015. Two years ago, regulators halted=20 construction at Xiluodu because the project lacked a proper = environmental impact=20 study. But work has quietly resumed. In November, crews succeeded in = damming the=20 Jinsha River, the tributary that forms the upper reaches of the = Yangtze.
Environmentalists worry that these systems create a domino effect in = which=20 one mega-dam begets another.
New laws require dam projects to undergo environmental impact studies = and=20 also provide opportunities for public comment and oversight. But those = laws are=20 easy to circumvent, or ignore. Xiluodu, for example, is being built in a = national protection zone for several species of endangered fish.
=93These large dams will have a lot of impacts, sometimes = irreversible,=94 said=20 Ma Jun, an environmentalist and the author of =93China=92s Water = Crisis.=94 =93We have=20 to look at them very carefully and follow our legal requirements very=20 strictly.=94
Richard Taylor, executive director of the International Hydropower=20 Association, predicted that the pace of construction would slow down as = China=20 began to pay more attention to strategic planning for social and = environmental=20 issues. =93There are some key players in China who want to be part of = that more=20 progressive approach,=94 he said.
Dam opponents have scored a handful of victories. In 2004, Mr. Wen, =
the prime=20
minister, unexpectedly suspended plans for 13 dams along the Nu River. =
The Nu=20
passes through a
But opposition is still often steamrolled. The 100,000 protesters at = Pubugou=20 dam created a crisis that reached the desk of Mr. Wen. Ultimately, = farmers saw=20 little improvement in the compensation package. Last year, the = authorities=20 executed a leader of the protests for what they said was his role in the = death=20 of a policeman. Now the dam is moving forward.
And so are others. The Xiluodu Dam will force the relocation of more = than=20 100,000 people in the city of Zhaotong. City officials are concerned. A = report=20 written by Chinese scientists and Zhaotong officials bluntly addressed = the=20 potential problems.
=93Past experience has also taught that hydropower development will = not=20 necessarily improve local social and economic conditions,=94 the authors = wrote.=20 =93There is widespread concern that, although the hydropower stations = are as=20 modern as those in Europe, the residents will become as poor as people = in=20 Africa.=94
For the past decade, the only two directions for people in the Three = Gorges=20 region have been up or out. Large, white markers etched with the number = =93175=94=20 are placed on many hillsides. No other explanation is needed; everything = below=20 has already been inundated or will be when the reservoir reaches 175 = meters, or=20 about 574 feet, in 2009.
The Displaced
In his 2007 work report to the National People=92s Congress, Prime = Minister Wen=20 noted that dam building, over many years, has displaced 23 million = people in=20 China. The Three Gorges was supposed to be a model program that would = not just=20 move people but also rebuild communities.
Resettlement began in 1997 as an upward migration. Farmers could = relocate to=20 newly built cities or stay on the farm, albeit on higher ground. But = studies now=20 show the region=92s population density is almost twice the national = average. In=20 many villages, too many farmers are perched on steep slopes, sharing too = little=20 land.
The upward migration also damaged the environment. Farmers cleared = land to=20 plant crops or rows of orange trees. Deforestation contributed to soil = erosion=20 and destabilized many hillsides. Today, construction crews are busy = reinforcing=20 crumbling hillsides above the reservoir with concrete. In the mountains, = soil=20 erosion is endemic. In the village of Pinggao, Li Shuyi, 50, walked down = the=20 sloped fields, pointing out cracks in the earth.
=93Whenever it rains, the soil starts flooding downhill,=94 Mr. Li = said. =93The=20 problem is getting more and more serious in recent years.=94
This summer, a tremor shook Pinggao like jelly, leaving cracks in = several=20 farmhouses. When rainfall is heavy, Mr. Li said his house swayed so much = =93you=20 can hear the tiles cracking on the roof.=94
He said, =93Villagers are getting very worried.=94
Problems have been evident for several years. As far back as 2000, = the=20 central government had already started changing national policies to = address=20 environmental decay. The clue had been the horrific floods along the = Yangtze,=20 which claimed thousands of lives in 1998. Deforestation and soil erosion = along=20 the upper reaches of the Yangtze had abetted the disaster; silted = riverbeds=20 became elevated highways for the raging currents.
Beijing ordered a national ban on timber cutting and began = reforesting=20 millions of acres along the Yangtze, including in the Three Gorges = region. Many=20 farmers who had moved uphill now were told to plant a stabilizing green = belt=20 along the shoreline. To further ease pressure on the land, Three Gorges=20 officials changed the relocation policy, promising free land and = financial help=20 for people who moved to other provinces.
Thousands Return
But leaving the region was not a good solution for many farmers =97 = or a=20 permanent one. More than 100,000 people left, but thousands have since = returned,=20 despite no longer holding local residency permits. In 2002, a group of = 57=20 villagers left the village of Daqiao above the Yangtze for a village in = Jiangxi=20 Province. Today, all 57 have returned.
=93We tried to grow rice in Jiangxi,=94 said Lin Shengping, 51, whose = adult=20 children had stayed in Daqiao. =93The harvest was really small. So we = all came=20 back. We don=92t have money, either in Jiangxi or here. But at home, I = can take=20 care of my grandchildren so my son and daughter-in-law can go out to = work.=94
Now, though, officials want people to move again. On Oct. 12, the = Xinhua news=20 agency confirmed that a new resettlement plan had been approved: At = least four=20 million people in Chongqing Municipality would have to be moved by 2020, = including at least two million living in the reservoir region.
Chongqing officials quickly tried to deflect any suggestion that the = plan=20 represented another dam resettlement. Instead, they said, it represented = a=20 national experiment approved by Beijing in June. Chongqing would become = a =93pilot=20 reform city.=94 Just as Beijing used =93special economic zones=94 like = Shenzhen to=20 kick-start the country=92s economic reforms during the 1980s, Chongqing = would=20 become a laboratory for trying to eliminate the urban-rural income = gap.
=93We=92re talking about separate issues,=94 said Lang Cheng, = director of=20 Chongqing=92s Immigration=20 Bureau, which helped oversee the dam resettlement plan. =93One is the = Three Gorges=20 relocation. One is the city plan for Chongqing for the future.=94
For Chongqing officials, the emphasis was on urbanization. Rural = residents=20 would have the choice to move to the outskirts of the city. Officials = said the=20 plan would offer enticements not available to migrants in the more = prosperous=20 coast, like residency permits enabling new arrivals to qualify for = social=20 welfare benefits.
But officials also said they hoped the plan would provide relief for = the=20 degraded land around the reservoir. =93These relocated people sacrificed = a lot for=20 the Three Gorges Dam and their living standard dropped,=94 said Xu = Yuming, a=20 researcher involved in planning the program. =93Now we are facing a new = challenge=20 of how to improve their living standards. The quality of land is getting = worse=20 and worse the higher they go. And there are now more people than the = land can=20 sustain.=94
In the isolated mountain villages above the reservoir, farmers have = heard=20 nothing about a new resettlement plan. For many farmers, the immediate = concern=20 is the land beneath their feet. Landslides are striking different = hillsides as=20 the rising water places more pressure on the shoreline, local officials = say. In=20 Fengjie County, officials have designated more than 800 disaster-prone = areas.=20 Since 2004, landslides have forced the relocation of more than 13,000 = people in=20 the county. Not too far from the dam itself, residents in the tiny = village of=20 Miaohe felt a major tremor in April beneath their farmhouses. Officials = ordered=20 them to relocate for three months into a mountain tunnel for lack of any = other=20 nighttime shelter. =93It rained the whole month,=94 said Han Yun, 43, a = woman=20 working in the fields. =93It leaked the whole time. During the night, = while we=20 were sleeping, trucks were passing through the other side of the tunnel. = Every=20 part of my bones was aching.=94
Not Enough to Rebuild
Residents now are supposed to relocate to a new village site less = than a mile=20 away. But many people did not get enough compensation to pay for new = housing.=20 =93We have three family members,=94 Ms. Han said. =93We only have 10,000 = yuan (about=20 $1,300). With such a small amount of money, I can=92t even build a first = floor.=94
Farther upstream, people in Jianmin Village are in the same = predicament.
Around daybreak on June 22, Lu Youbing awoke to the screams of her=20 brother-in-law and the sickening sensation of the earth collapsing. Her = mountain=20 farmhouse in Jianmin Village buckled as a landslide swept it downhill. = In all,=20 20 homes were demolished. Five months later, Ms. Lu is living in a tent, = fending=20 off rats and wondering where her family can go.
=93We have nothing left,=94 she said. =93Not a single thing.=94
Winter is approaching, and she is trying to block out cold air =97 = and rats =97=20 by pinning down the tent flaps with rocks. Villagers have been told that = more=20 landslides are possible. Ms. Lu lives with her second husband and their = two=20 children. They are too poor to buy an apartment in the city or to build = a new=20 home on higher ground. Local officials gave them the tent. Villagers = have=20 donated clothes.
The tents are pitched on the only available flat land =97 a terrace = with a=20 monument celebrating efforts by local officials to improve the = environment.
=93We don=92t know about winter,=94 she said. =93This is the only = option we have.=20 What else can we do?=94
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